Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.016938 0.019218 0.021698 0.024598 0.027898 0.031537 0.035859
2025-04-06 0.013052 0.016099 0.019707 0.024297 0.029993 0.036840 0.045714
2025-04-13 0.010618 0.013858 0.017917 0.023388 0.030588 0.039769 0.052408
2025-04-20 0.009543 0.013046 0.017647 0.024149 0.033136 0.045169 0.062587
2025-04-27 0.008671 0.012338 0.017354 0.024743 0.035398 0.050284 0.072797
2025-05-04 0.008016 0.011822 0.017222 0.025474 0.037839 0.055789 0.084034
2025-05-11 0.007212 0.010986 0.016518 0.025259 0.038816 0.059195 0.092434
2025-05-18 0.006596 0.010353 0.016028 0.025278 0.040095 0.063098 0.101899
2025-05-25 0.005978 0.009646 0.015344 0.024904 0.040680 0.065923 0.109857
2025-06-01 0.005601 0.009278 0.015147 0.025268 0.042454 0.070757 0.121521
2025-06-08 0.005160 0.008761 0.014655 0.025083 0.043273 0.074054 0.130846
2025-06-15 0.004942 0.008594 0.014719 0.025831 0.045729 0.080303 0.145886
2025-06-22 0.004464 0.007944 0.013920 0.025030 0.045435 0.081815 0.152708
2025-06-29 0.004110 0.007484 0.013411 0.024696 0.045946 0.084806 0.162570
2025-07-06 0.003708 0.006897 0.012622 0.023772 0.045268 0.085527 0.168140
2025-07-13 0.003585 0.006813 0.012739 0.024547 0.047860 0.092599 0.186786
2025-07-20 0.003448 0.006690 0.012769 0.025150 0.050166 0.099313 0.205370
2025-07-27 0.003338 0.006608 0.012868 0.025894 0.052810 0.106916 0.226532
2025-08-03 0.003124 0.006303 0.012506 0.025675 0.053468 0.110553 0.239663
2025-08-10 0.002954 0.006072 0.012272 0.025695 0.054617 0.115292 0.255627
2025-08-17 0.002757 0.005768 0.011864 0.025314 0.054875 0.118158 0.267710
2025-08-24 0.002649 0.005642 0.011811 0.025684 0.056789 0.124753 0.288888
2025-08-31 0.002497 0.005408 0.011515 0.025496 0.057446 0.128631 0.304143